Existing Home Sales in MetroWest Exhibit Mixed Results

Submitted by Anonymous on Wed, 2009-09-16 10:08

 

The market for existing single family homes and condominiums in MetroWest exhibited mixed results in the first half of 2009. Using data from The Warren Group for Banker & Tradesman, MERC has calculated figures for both the number of single family homes and condominiums sold and for the corresponding estimated median prices for the MetroWest CCSA©, which includes the nine towns of Ashland, Framingham, Holliston, Hopkinton, Natick, Sherborn, Southborough, Sudbury and Wayland.
 
Looking at January-to-June data for 1988 to 2009 in Graph 1, the green line measuring the number of single family units sold in the nine MetroWest communities exhibits volatile yet cyclical behavior. The recessions of the early 1990s and the early 2000s are evident, as is the current downward movement. In fact, the 617 single family homes sold in the first half of this year in MetroWest is lower than in any other similar period in the entire 22 years covered. Shown on the same graph, the number of condominiums sold in the first half of this year also continued to decrease when compared to earlier years, falling to a level not seen since 1992. 
 
However, comparing the first quarter, Q1, of 2009—January to March, shown in orange bars—to the first half of 2009—January to June, shown in red bars—Graph 2 indicates that the number of single family units sold in MetroWest and in each of its nine towns increased sharply. Three times as many single family homes and more than two and one half times the number of condominiums were sold in the region in the first six months of 2009 as compared to the first three months of 2009. This means that the increase in single family homes sold in the second quarter, Q2, of 2009—April to June shown in yellow bars—compared to Q1, ranged from a 55% gain in value in Framingham (from 75 units sold in Q1 to 116 sold in Q2 for a total of 191 in January to June) and Southborough (11 units sold in Q1 to 17 sold in Q2) to a 267% gain in Sherborn (3 units sold in Q1 to 8 sold in Q2). For the entire January through June period, Framingham sales comprised 31% of regional sales, while Natick and Sudbury contributed 16.2% and 10.7% respectively. Ashland, Holliston, Hopkinton and Wayland each added between 7.9% and 9.2% to regional single family homes sold; and Southborough and Sherborn each contributed less than 5% to regional sales.
In Graph 3, estimated median regional prices for both single family homes and condominiums sold in the first half of the years 1988 through 2009 are shown. There is clear evidence of the dramatic increase in MetroWest single family home prices from 1998 to 2006, and to a lesser degree, the rise in MetroWest condo prices from 2001 to 2004. While prices for both types of residences are down from their peak values, the current values for both are at 2002 levels. It is notable that estimated median price for single family homes dipped below $400,000 for the region in the first half of this year, and for condos the value dipped below $200,000.
 
However, the January to June median price for single family homes in MetroWest is 2.6% greater than the January to March median price in the region. This comparison for the individual MetroWest towns reveals a wide range of differences as indicated in Graph 4. Six MetroWest towns experienced a median price decrease in the first six months as compared to the first three months of the year, and three towns registered a price increase. Holliston, Southborough and Natick recorded decreases of -0.4%, -0.7%, and -2.8% respectively, while Hopkinton came in at -6.3%. Both Sherborn at -11.3% and Wayland at -22.0% had bigger relative declines in median price. For the region, these decreases were more than offset by increases in median price for single family homes in the three communities of Ashland, up +32.2%, Framingham at + 5.9% and Sudbury at +12.9%. Together, these three communities comprised almost 51% of total regional sales of single family homes in the first half of 2009. 
 
So the results are mixed for MetroWest existing home sales: low levels of single family and condominium sales and median price in 2009 so far, but an increase in sales of both types of residences in second quarter compared to first. There was also a small increase in estimated median price for single family homes sold in the region in January to June compared to the first quarter. 
Martha Meaney
MERC@Framingham State College
 
 
 

 

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